Can you predict the James Beard Awards? Eater looked at various demographic details, including gender, city population, and number of times nominated to compare each of this year’s finalists for Best Chefs, Outstanding Chef, and Rising Star Chef to previous winners in those categories. We used the data to figure out how much more or less likely each chef is to win compared to their co-nominees.

In our chart below, each bubble represents a finalist. The larger the bubble, the more likely that chef is to win. Sort the bubbles by gender, city population, and number of times nominated — three key factors in who wins — to see which traits chefs with the highest odds have in common.